10/1/08

A decent looking woman was happy to see me a few minutes ago. That doesn't happen very often. Of course, she was just glad that I got to Albany early and she didn't have to wait around all night for my paperwork, but you know... small victories and such.

My relay showed up in Ohio a little early so I got rolling a little early. It was a pretty rainy and dreary drive, but traffic was nice and light all the way across. The time seemed to pass pretty quickly as I listened to the political talk on various channels through the evening. My mind got going, as it sometimes does, and I found that I was completely distracted from the monotony of the road.

Maybe somebody here can help me out with this. We're told that this bailout bill (or rescue package if that makes you feel better) is absolutely necessary. If it doesn't pass, we're told, all hell will break loose in a week or two. I'm just really trying to hear a convincing argument. Don't bother with all of the stuff about credit markets and such. I am thoroughly versed in economics and I understand very well how it all works. I also just might puke if I hear the phrases 'Wall Street' and 'Main Street' used in the same sentence one more time today. So if, as we're told, the credit markets are really this fragile, how will they keep working for the next week or two? Why haven't they crashed yet? Wouldn't they have been under more pressure when gasoline was $4.75 a gallon? The whole housing debacle has been underway for quite some time now. What exactly makes this week the absolute drop dead date for our economy?

Leaving that aside for a minute, we get to the bill itself. If you're a Republican, it's hard to imagine that you could be okay with up to $700 billion in taxpayer debt being used to turn our constitutionally limited government into the country's biggest landlord. If you're a Democrat, maybe the $700 billion in spending and the federal buyup wouldn't bother you, in and of themselves. You would have to be philosophically opposed to using the treasury to ease the pain on big money investment firms though, right? So it's easy enough to see why people on both sides of the aisle are walking around and talking about how much they hate the plan.

Yet, the plan moves forward. Why were the Democrats so quick to give up the handouts to their constituent unions and community groups? Why were the Republicans so quick to give up on market-based solutions and lower taxpayer exposure? How can both sides be so quick to say that "improvements" in the senate version will allow them to get behind the bill?

Higher FDIC insurance? Who gives a shit? If you had more than $100K in a single deposit account, you're an idiot. It's not hard to split your deposits among several banks if you have that kind of money. So now you can consolidate your funds a little. What about the banks from which you pull money? Wouldn't you weaken them at least as much as you would strengthen others? That's a stupid 'solution.' How can that provide any political cover?

Extensions to tax breaks that have existed forever? Who gives a shit? Those extensions were going to be passed eventually anyway. How can they provide any political cover?

Suspension of mark-to-market? Who gives a shit? The pain from that debacle has already made its way into the market. This provision would be helpful going forward, but for now it might just force the Komissar of the Treasury to pay more money for the bad debt.

Some of the people whom I trust on matters of finance are convinced that this bill completely misses the point, yet we're told that everybody knows we have to do it this way. Nothing addressing the tax structure to attract capital, as nearly as I can tell. Nothing addressing the GSE's to solidify the mortgage market, as nearly as I can tell. Nothing to prevent the federal government from going even further down the road to becoming the banker of last resort whenever the next domino falls.

I was driving along and trying to wade through the spin when these guys had some kind of press conference to pat each other on the back about what a great job they had done. What great job? I don't understand. They passed a bill that may or may not do any good. They passed a bill that may or may not cost the taxpayers $700 billion. They passed a bill that really doesn't make anyone on either side happy. Yet there they were, congratulating themselves. My suspicion level is at about a 9.6 on a ten point scale whenever this stuff happens.

I guess I'm just a cynic, but am I the only one who thinks that the urgency had more to do with crooked politicians covering their own asses than it had to do with the credit markets? Am I the only one who wonders why we aren't seeing CEO's marched off to prison like we did when (much smaller) previous accounting scandals occurred without directly screwing the taxpayers? Yeah, it's probably just me. After all, I'm sure that there must be a valid reason for the Speaker of the House to be assuring the majority whip that there won't be a "witch hunt" concerning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. No reason to try to get to the bottom of it. Just a $1 trillion boondoggle, nothing to see here... moving along now... I've been watching some archived CSPAN videos that have me thinking I'm not so far off, but I'm trying to keep an open mind.

Anyhow, that's enough of my angst for now. I'm #1 on the board right now and going into Thursday with 1,135 miles. Factoring in the northeast pay, I should have a decent week as long as tomorrow goes well for me. I'll probably put in for home time in a few days. My father called and asked if I wanted to go to the Red Wings' home opener on the 9th. There's a party bus deal leaving from my cousin's bar, so that sounds pretty fun.

Another scheduled workout, another rainy night. You don't think maybe... nah, there's no conspiracy. Tomorrow should be fine.